Every CFO aspires to improve the bottom line. But decreeing business plan growth from above does not work. „I want 10% additional turnover in the business plan“ does not imply that the employees will be able to deliver on that. „I want 10% less cost in the business plan“ is not sound management, unless accompanied by concrete guidance and specifics on how and where to cut. In brief, employees must understand what they need to do, and management needs to ensure that the goals they set are achievable. Otherwise, resources are wasted in planning for events that may never happen.
Bold plans may damage employee morale. Without any reasoning and concretization behind them, employees will rightly suspect their managers to be out of touch with the reality on the ground. Formulating good ideas to bring the business forward or raise brand awareness is hard.
Our solution is: get clear feedback on your business plan from good forecasters. Good Judgment Project Superforecasters are people who have a track record for being good at separating the noise from the signal. We can assess whether the company is on track for meeting its goals, or whether it's going down an unrealistic path, especially if your employees are afraid of giving direct and candid feedback. Convince us that your corporate strategy is sound, and accept our feedback to improve your forecasting.
Often, managers spend too much time talking about minor issues, when what is really needed is focus on the big picture. Quite often also, we focus on too big a picture, and are not mindful enough, particularly when it comes to the many small steps necessary for growing the business.
Superforecasters have shown over several years and in their answers to hundreds of questions that we are well calibrated, and have low scope sensitivity. We may not be experts in the business, but we know what to read and what to ask in order to get an accurate picture of what we see.
To know what's going on, you should ask conditional questions, not only to Superforecasters, but also to employees. What is the likelihood that net revenue will grow 5% next year, if I enact strategy A? What is the likelihood that it will grow by that same amount if I don't change anything?
We can qualify the plausibility of both scenarios. And, we can find out why your forecasting was less accurate in the past than it could have been. After all, you lose money both with overspending and with underspending. Order too much, you waste resources. Order too little, and you lose out on business.